Numbers to Know 8/20/26: The Late-Summer Buying Opportunity

What does uncertainty halfway around the world have to do with buying a home here? Quite a bit. In this month’s Numbers to Know, Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker explains how the Iran conflict, interest rates, and changing buyer demand are shaping the housing market and where opportunity may still exist.

The first number to know this month: $85. That is the price of a barrel of oil as of August 17, up 25% from its midsummer low on July 6. The exact level of prices is not so important as the fact that rising prices reflect markets’ growing uncertainty that the war in Iran, and shipping through the strait of Hormuz, will return to peaceful normalcy anytime soon. And that means continued, elevated uncertainty, inflation, and interest rates.

Which brings me to the second number to know this month: 4.7%. That is the yield that Ten-Year Treasuries reached on August 17, and it’s within spitting distance of the highest 10-year yield since 2007. That reflects market concerns about energy prices, inflation, and the ample supplies of government debt being issued by the United States and other countries.

And where the ten-year treasury yield goes, mortgage rates tend to follow.

Here in the dog days of summer, mortgage rates are staying almost ¾ of a point above 6 percent, which they touched on the eve of the war in Iran. This week also marked a watershed where mortgage rates are now higher than the same time a year ago, which will likely make for a headwind on home purchase demand, compared to year-ago levels, for the rest of Q3.

The fourth number to know: 1,126,000. That is how many active listings were on the market nationally at the end of July, according to Realtor.com. That is just above the 1.1 million active listings in July of last year.

Put another way, active listings were up just 2% year-over-year in July. That’s the third month in a row with that low and steady rate of growth, after a sharp slowdown in growth since May of 2025, when inventory was up 32% year-over-year.

And finally, pending sales were up only 2% year-over-year in July. After a few months of more like 5% growth, that might signal the start of a downshift in sales activity as buyers grow tired of elevated mortgage rates. Between the flat inventory growth and flat sales, this looks like a fairly balanced market between buyers and sellers for this time of year. But don’t forget that late summer is usually one of the best times to buy, because the level of inventory is high, and right now competition from other buyers is not nearly as fierce as it will likely be next spring.